In Hindsight 02/05/2026
It’s been a while since the first installment of this series, so let’s dive back in and see how some of the more recent spells I’ve shared have actually performed in the wild.
🏆 Winners Beyond the Backtest
Trending Alternatives
So far, this one has delivered a strong return that’s stayed pretty uncorrelated to the broader market. And that’s even after removing the now-delisted ETF (HNW). Which does raise an awkward question: was taking it out of my portfolio a bit premature?
Defense First
Another spell that’s held its ground impressively. Even with the recent pullback, its performance has stayed solid.
GBTC/GLD
It’s been sitting in cash since October, but zooming out: I’m totally fine with how this has played out. It did what it was supposed to do — participate when conditions were favorable, then step aside when they weren’t.
IAU/USO
This spell uses a completely different signal from GBTC/GLD, yet the pattern looks strikingly similar. Performance has tracked right in line with its historical results.
Corporate Bond Short-term Momentum Canary
Another standout — strong returns with remarkably low volatility. Hard to ask for much more.
📣 Quick reminder: This is just a peek under the hood of my systematic strategies — not investment advice. Always do your own homework and talk to a pro if you’re uncertain.
🕰️ Too Early to Tell
SPHB/SPLV
At first glance, you might think this one did fine. But look closer — the signal never actually flipped. It sat in QLD for the entire out-of-sample period:
So the jury’s still out. We haven’t really seen what this spell does when it matters.
The Volatility Edge
Same story here. The negative eVRP scenario simply hasn’t materialized during the period, so we’re still waiting for a real test.
RSI Ensemble
Mostly stayed in cash. It’s honestly surprising how few overbought or oversold signals triggered, given how noisy the headlines have been lately.
Wrapping Up
No duds to report this time around, which is great. But let’s keep some perspective: the market hasn’t really gone through a sustained drawdown in recent months. The correction over the last few days is a good reminder that the real stress test may still be ahead of us. That’s when we’ll really see what these spells are made of.
The pullback over the last few days might be nothing… or it might be the opening scene of a longer correction. Either way, I’ll keep tracking these and will post another hindsight update once we’ve had a bit more regime variety to chew on.
Thanks for putting this out.