My version of the Baltic Dry strategy which I originally posted in April 2022 has been in cash for months now, oddly enough. (Nonetheless, it has retained its good performance of CAGR 31.48% with a maximum drawdown of -9.41%). My readers have voiced pretty interesting opinions on why Baltic Dry has been kaput for such a long time; only time will tell whether de-globalization means this metric has lost its oomph.
I agree that it's necessary to have some robust risk-off signals. Personally, I use a lot more than two such signals; six months ago I presented some 10 here
, and in the meantime I have added a few more to my list.
If someone said "too many signals lead to decision paralysis", I'd agree, though the question of course is when too much is really too much. For instance, I think Chris Ciovacco with his 400+ charts is unable to sell because he's always seeing something positive going on...
Thanks, Martin! Yeah I remember the post of yours. It was inspiring. It's indeed a balancing act: how many signals are ideal. I guess one can come up with a simple scoring scheme with them.
Right, my BDRY signals would also have been in cash, were it not for the additional check of 5% drawdown.
very good work, thanks!
My version of the Baltic Dry strategy which I originally posted in April 2022 has been in cash for months now, oddly enough. (Nonetheless, it has retained its good performance of CAGR 31.48% with a maximum drawdown of -9.41%). My readers have voiced pretty interesting opinions on why Baltic Dry has been kaput for such a long time; only time will tell whether de-globalization means this metric has lost its oomph.
I agree that it's necessary to have some robust risk-off signals. Personally, I use a lot more than two such signals; six months ago I presented some 10 here
https://martinschwoerer.substack.com/p/most-of-the-charts-that-i-like-really?r=5976a
, and in the meantime I have added a few more to my list.
If someone said "too many signals lead to decision paralysis", I'd agree, though the question of course is when too much is really too much. For instance, I think Chris Ciovacco with his 400+ charts is unable to sell because he's always seeing something positive going on...
Thanks, Martin! Yeah I remember the post of yours. It was inspiring. It's indeed a balancing act: how many signals are ideal. I guess one can come up with a simple scoring scheme with them.
Right, my BDRY signals would also have been in cash, were it not for the additional check of 5% drawdown.
I appreciate you sharing your efforts with QuantMage. You and @Martin are two of my favorite reads. Keep up the terrific work!
Thanks, happy to hear that!