My portfolio had a strong run since the last update, gaining 5.7%. SPY was right there with it, up 5.6% over the same period.

That is a nice result, but also a slightly vexing one.

Given that the geopolitical choke point remains blocked, I expected markets to be a bit more cautious. Instead, we got a quick bounce back toward all-time highs. The market seems to be saying: yes, war and inflation risks matter, but AI tailwinds, strong earnings, and liquidity still matter more.

At least for now.

This leaves us with the big question: is the AI hype train barreling toward a dot-com style pop, as the bears warn? Or are we still in the early stages of a genuine productivity boom that will justify today’s enthusiasm?

The honest answer is that nobody knows yet.

The dot-com era produced plenty of absurd valuations and broken companies, but it also gave us Amazon, Google, and the modern internet economy. AI could follow a similar pattern: lots of hype, plenty of casualties, and a few truly transformative winners.

So the job is not to blindly chase the hype train, but also not to dismiss it just because it looks crowded.

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For now, the market is choosing optimism. My portfolio benefited from that optimism this round. Whether that optimism is wisdom or denial is the trillion-dollar question. 💸

Systematic Investing with QuantMage

Portfolio Update 05/15/2026 - AI 🤖 vs. War…