My portfolio had a strong run since the last update, gaining 5.7%. SPY was right there with it, up 5.6% over the same period.
That is a nice result, but also a slightly vexing one.
Given that the geopolitical choke point remains blocked, I expected markets to be a bit more cautious. Instead, we got a quick bounce back toward all-time highs. The market seems to be saying: yes, war and inflation risks matter, but AI tailwinds, strong earnings, and liquidity still matter more.
At least for now.
This leaves us with the big question: is the AI hype train barreling toward a dot-com style pop, as the bears warn? Or are we still in the early stages of a genuine productivity boom that will justify today’s enthusiasm?
The honest answer is that nobody knows yet.
The dot-com era produced plenty of absurd valuations and broken companies, but it also gave us Amazon, Google, and the modern internet economy. AI could follow a similar pattern: lots of hype, plenty of casualties, and a few truly transformative winners.
So the job is not to blindly chase the hype train, but also not to dismiss it just because it looks crowded.
For now, the market is choosing optimism. My portfolio benefited from that optimism this round. Whether that optimism is wisdom or denial is the trillion-dollar question. 💸
Thank you